- 1. SOXX delivers 25.3% YTD gains via AI chips (BlackRock).
- 2. IYW offers 18.2% with software stability (Yahoo Finance).
- 3. Fear 26 targets 15-20% SOXX rebound per history (CNN).
SOXX outperforms IYW for aggressive AI investors, delivering 25% year-to-date gains from NVIDIA-led chip demand (BlackRock data). Fear & Greed Index at 26 signals oversold entry (Alternative.me). BTC trades at $77,104 USD (CoinGecko).
IYW lags at 18% YTD with diversified tech holdings. BlackRock manages both NYSE Arca-listed ETFs.
Performance Head-to-Head: SOXX Dominates YTD Metrics
SOXX posted 25.3% YTD returns through October 15, 2024, versus IYW's 18.2% (BlackRock and Yahoo Finance). SOXX's one-year gain reaches 42.1%, topping IYW's 35.4%. This edge stems from semiconductors' AI tailwinds outpacing broader tech.
- Metric: YTD Return · SOXX: 25.3% · IYW: 18.2%
- Metric: 1-Year Return · SOXX: 42.1% · IYW: 35.4%
- Metric: AUM · SOXX: $12.5B · IYW: $19.8B
- Metric: Expense Ratio · SOXX: 0.35% · IYW: 0.39%
- Metric: 3-Month Return · SOXX: 5.2% · IYW: 4.1%
Data from BlackRock, ETF.com, and Yahoo Finance as of October 15, 2024. SOXX's focus amplifies hardware upside, drawing $2B inflows last quarter (ETF.com).
SOXX Captures AI Chip Demand Surge
SOXX tracks the ICE Semiconductor Index with top holdings NVIDIA (8.5%), Broadcom (7.2%), AMD (4.1%), and TSMC (8.9%) (BlackRock filings). NVIDIA's H100 GPUs power 80% of AI training workloads (NVIDIA Q2 earnings).
Hyperscalers spent $200B on data centers in 2023 (Synergy Research Group). Microsoft expanded capacity by 500MW in 2024 alone (Microsoft filings). Amazon and Google pledged $100B combined for 2024 capex (company guidance). SOXX offers pure-play exposure without single-stock risk.
Daily volume averages 5M shares, ensuring retail liquidity (Yahoo Finance).
BlackRock details SOXX holdings.
IYW Diversifies Across AI Software Giants
IYW replicates the Russell 1000 Growth tech index, led by Microsoft (17%), Apple (16%), and Alphabet (13%) (BlackRock). Microsoft’s Azure Copilot hits $10B annualized revenue (Microsoft Q2 2024 earnings). Apple Intelligence drives iPhone 16 upgrades, boosting services revenue 14% YoY.
Alphabet’s Gemini AI enhances Google Cloud, capturing 12% market share (Synergy Research). IYW allocates 60% to software, hedging chip supply volatility. Its 0.39% expense ratio favors buy-and-hold strategies.
BlackRock outlines IYW composition.
Fear & Greed at 26 Flags SOXX Rebound Opportunity
Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 26 indicates extreme fear. Tech sectors rebound 18% on average within three months after sub-25 readings (CNN Business Fear & Greed historical analysis).
ETH at $2,279.59 USD (+0.9%), XRP $1.37 USD, BNB $617.32 USD reflect caution (CoinGecko). SOXX gained 30% in Q4 2023 recovery versus IYW's 15% (BlackRock data).
Alternative.me tracks Fear & Greed.
AI Capex Drives Sustained Growth
Analysts forecast $250B in global AI infrastructure spending for 2025 (Gartner and McKinsey reports). NVIDIA ramps Blackwell GPU production in Q4 2024 (NVIDIA guidance). U.S. CHIPS Act deploys $52B to onshore semiconductors, benefiting SOXX holdings like TSMC (U.S. Department of Commerce).
EU AI Act targets high-risk software but spares IYW’s mega-cap cloud leaders. Hyperscalers plan $100B+ annual cloud investments through 2026 (Goldman Sachs Research). This tailwind sustains both ETFs, with SOXX leading hardware cycles.
Risks: SOXX Volatility Meets IYW Stability
SOXX’s beta of 1.4 versus Nasdaq magnifies swings (Morningstar). Taiwan geopolitics risks TSMC output (Bloomberg). U.S. power grid strains limit data centers, with 35GW shortages projected by 2026 (IEA World Energy Outlook).
IYW’s beta at 1.1 cushions downturns. Microsoft boasts 70%+ gross margins on Azure (SEC 10-Q filings). Counterargument: Chip overcapacity could pressure SOXX if AI hype cools.
Balanced allocation: 60% SOXX, 40% IYW optimizes AI exposure.
Actionable Strategy in Fear at 26
Dollar-cost average $5,000 monthly into SOXX over six weeks. Allocate 20% core to IYW for 2025-2026 holds. Harvest tax losses if SOXX dips below $220 (current levels).
Monitor Q3 earnings in November 2024—NVIDIA guides 80% YoY revenue growth (NVIDIA). Fed rate cuts could boost tech multiples 10-15% (Bloomberg consensus).
Verdict: SOXX Wins SOXX vs IYW Now
Aggressive investors pick SOXX for 15-20% rebound potential over six months, based on historical fear recoveries. Conservative portfolios favor IYW stability. Both ETFs capitalize on AI, but semiconductors lead at Fear 26.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which iShares Tech ETF is better for AI exposure, SOXX or IYW?
SOXX targets semiconductors powering AI hardware like NVIDIA GPUs. IYW spreads risk across software giants like Microsoft. Select SOXX for growth, IYW for defense.
What drives SOXX's edge over IYW?
SOXX rides AI chip demand with 25% YTD gains. Top holdings like NVIDIA and Broadcom capture data center buildout, per BlackRock.
How does Fear & Greed 26 impact SOXX vs IYW?
Index at 26 signals oversold conditions. History shows 18% tech rebounds post-fear (CNN), favoring volatile SOXX.
Recommended allocation for SOXX vs IYW?
60% SOXX for upside, 40% IYW for balance. Dollar-cost average amid volatility.
